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Modeling & Forecasting

More than 50 years of experience built into a patented agile platform that enables scenario based learning and iterative what-if analysis to determine optimum customer acquisition, ad flighting, channel selection and media allocation.

MSW Outlook® Media Mix Optimization & Market Share Forecast Model℠

The Foundation of MSW's Modeling & Forecasting Tools is Our Patented Outlook® Modeling Tool


MSW Research holds U.S. Patent, #8,676,638 for the system and method underlying the innovative Outlook® Modeling tool.

Outlook is a platform that enables marketers to run multiple “what-if” scenarios to determine the likely impact their advertising will have on sales and market share.  Outlook can be used as an upstream tool, while advertising is in development, or as a downstream tool, after ads have been produced and are ready for airing.  Marketers can use these “what if” scenarios to optimize total media weight as well as the distribution of weight among all the ads in a plan.

Up until now marketers were forced to use blunt rules of thumb for ad planning and forecasting.  The data was available for a more rigorous approach but the complexity made it difficult and time consuming to complete.  The Outlook Media Planner automates the process, making it fast and convenient.

How Does it Work?


Outlook® is a media mix optimization model that incorporates proprietary algorithms along with the newest learnings on advertising strength, media weight, wear-in, wear-out, continuity and competitive environment to estimate an advertising/media plan’s impact on the bottom line.


The model is designed to answer a variety of common marketing questions such as:

  • What if my budget gets cut; can I still make my numbers?
  • What amount of media spend is necessary to meet my business objectives?
  • How many ad executions will I need?
  • When will my ads need to be refreshed with new ones?
  • What will the sales impact be this quarter?
  • What's the optimal allocation of GRPs between my 30 and 15-second television ads?


MSW Outlook®
Customer Acquisition Forecast

Outlook Customer Acquisition Forecast provides a brand with a forecast of the number of incremental customers (new, lapsed, and/or loyal that increase usage/purchase frequency) as the result of a specific media plan over the course of a quarter.  Inputs include CCPersuasion scores for each ad, planned media spend levels and current category and brand size.

MSW Outlook®
Market Share Forecast

The Outlook Market Share Forecast projects the expected quarterly share change from planned media.  Inputs include the CCPersuasion scores and spend levels by month for each piece of media in the campaign.  Various video, digital and print formats are accommodated.

MSW Outlook®
Media Mix Optimization Model

The Outlook Media Mix Optimization Model produces a recommended allocation of a brand’s planned media budget among specific pieces of copy across various media types.  This optimization is based on maximizing the expected delivery of persuasive power to the market.  Inputs include the overall media budget, CCPersuasion scores for each ad and cost per unit of media (e.g., HH GRPs, impressions) for each media type included in the campaign.

MSW Outlook®
Wear-Out Calculator

Outlook Wear-out Calculator uses MSW’s proprietary advertising wear-out model to project the expected decline in an ad’s persuasive power from a specific spend level.  Outlook accommodates spend for a single ad across multiple media channels.  Inputs are the ad’s CCPersuasion score and spend level for each media channel.

Click on a highlighted slice of the Framework to learn more...

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